Modeling Hospital Resource Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Experimental Validation

J. M. Calabuig, E. Jiménez-Fernández, E. A. Sánchez-Pérez and S. Manzanares
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J. M. Calabuig: Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada, IUMPA-UPV, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
E. Jiménez-Fernández: Departamento de Teoría e Historía Económica, Universidad de Granada, Campus Cartuja, s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain
E. A. Sánchez-Pérez: Instituto Universitario de Matemática Pura y Aplicada, IUMPA-UPV, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
S. Manzanares: Dirección Médica, Hospital Virgen de las Nieves, Av. de las Fuerzas Armadas, 2, 18014 Granada, Spain

Econometrics, 2021, vol. 9, issue 4, 1-16

Abstract: One of the main challenges posed by the healthcare crisis generated by COVID-19 is to avoid hospital collapse. The occupation of hospital beds by patients diagnosed by COVID-19 implies the diversion or suspension of their use for other specialities. Therefore, it is useful to have information that allows efficient management of future hospital occupancy. This article presents a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process of bed occupancy by patients with COVID-19 in a hospital by means of an adaptation of Kaplan-Meier survival curves. To check this model, the evolution of the COVID-19 hospitalization process of two hospitals between 11 March and 15 June 2020 is analyzed. The information provided by the Kaplan-Meier curves allows forecasts of hospital occupancy in subsequent periods. The results shows an average deviation of 2.45 patients between predictions and actual occupancy in the period analyzed.

Keywords: health econometrics; COVID-19; Kaplan-Meier; decision; optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C C00 C01 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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