Public Debt and Economic Growth in EU Countries

Mihaela Onofrei, Ionel Bostan (), Bogdan Firtescu, Angela Roman and Valentina Rusu
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Mihaela Onofrei: Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, 700107 Iasi, Romania
Ionel Bostan: Faculty of Law and Administrative Sciences, Ștefan cel Mare University, Universitatii 13, 720229 Suceava, Romania

Economies, 2022, vol. 10, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: The short- and long-term effects of public debt on economic growth in EU countries is analyzed in this paper, using data that covers a period of 25 years (1995–2019). For public debt, we used a proxy general government gross debt (as a percentage of GDP), while for economic growth, we used the real GDP per capita growth rate. In addition, our models include a set of control variables to highlight the impact of other determinants on economic growth. We utilized several econometric methodologies related to ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag models), such as the pooled mean group (PMG), the mean group (MG), and the dynamic fixed effects (DFE) models. The results of the study show that in both the short and long term, an increase in public debt is negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. Specifically, in both the short- and long-term analyses, the estimated coefficients of public debt were statistically significant and negative, while the magnitude of the negative impact on economic growth differed. In view of these findings, we consider both the rigorous monitoring of the level of public debt and the control of public allocation to support economic growth to be of major importance.

Keywords: public debt; economic growth; long-term effects; autoregressive distributed lag models; EU countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:10:p:254-:d:940255

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