Macroeconomic Factors of Consumer Loan Credit Risk in Central and Eastern European Countries

Rasa Kanapickienė (), Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė, Deimantė Vasiliauskaitė, Renatas Špicas, Airidas Neifaltas and Mantas Valukonis
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Rasa Kanapickienė: Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, 10222 Vilnius, Lithuania
Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė: Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, 10222 Vilnius, Lithuania
Deimantė Vasiliauskaitė: Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, 10222 Vilnius, Lithuania
Renatas Špicas: Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, 10222 Vilnius, Lithuania
Airidas Neifaltas: Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, 10222 Vilnius, Lithuania
Mantas Valukonis: Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vilnius University, 10222 Vilnius, Lithuania

Economies, 2023, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-32

Abstract: In the scientific literature, there is a lack of a systematic approach to credit risk factors. In addition, insufficient attention is still paid to analysing the macroeconomic factors of consumer loan credit risk. Thus, this research aims to evaluate the macroeconomic factors of consumer loan credit risk in Central and Eastern European countries’ banking systems. The findings of the study can be formulated as follows. After analysing scientific literature on credit risk factors, an improved and detailed (at five different levels) classification of factors influencing banking credit risk is proposed. This classification can be beneficial for more enhanced analysis of the factors influencing banking credit risk for the whole loan portfolio as well as for different types of loans, e.g., consumer loans. For quantitative evaluation of the impact of macroeconomic factors on consumer loan credit risk, the methods of panel data analysis and bivariate and multiple regressions are employed. Eleven CEE countries in the period from 2008 to 2020 are analysed. The results revealed that the aggregate of general macroeconomic condition factors is negatively related to consumer loan NPLs. Moreover, the economic growth, stock market, foreign exchange market, and institutional environment factors proved to be risk-decreasing, while credit market and bond market factors had a risk-increasing impact. The results of this research might help financial institutions manage credit risk more efficiently and also might be relevant to governments and central banks when selecting and applying fiscal and monetary policy measures. This study also makes policy recommendations.

Keywords: credit risk; consumer loans; non-performing loans; macroeconomic factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:102-:d:1105510

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