Demographic Change and Regional Specialisation: The Case of Greek NUTS II Regions

Manolis Christofakis, Andreas Gkouzos () and Eleni Gaki
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Andreas Gkouzos: Department of Regional and Economic Development, School of Applied Economics and Social Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, Nea Poli, 33100 Amfissa, Greece
Eleni Gaki: Department of Business Administration, School of Business, University of the Aegean, 82100 Chios, Greece

Economies, 2024, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-22

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of demographic changes on regional specialisation across Greek NUTS2 regions from 2001 to 2021. It explores the relationship between age-specific variations in the economically active population and gross value added (GVA) across different economic sectors. Using demographic and GVA data alongside spatial analysis techniques such as spatial regression models, median Local Moran’s I, and location quotient, the study identifies spatial autocorrelation patterns. Findings reveal strong correlations between the economically active population and GVA, highlighting demographic factors’ crucial role in regional economic performance. Over the period 2001 to 2021, the 15–24 and 25–34 age groups generally experienced declining growth rates in total, male, and female economically active populations, while the 45–54 and 55–64 age groups saw increases. Regions adjacent to those with higher economically active populations showed high–high clustering. Especially, Attiki and Kentriki Makedonia, the two metropolitan regions of Greece, influence neighbouring regions through economic spillover effects, fostering economic sector clustering and emphasising regional specialisation. These findings highlight the complex interplay between demographic shifts and regional economic outcomes, noting spatial disparities and the need for targeted policy interventions. The study provides empirical evidence demonstrating how demographic changes influence regional economic development across different regions.

Keywords: Greek NUTS2 regions; economically active population; gross value added; local Moran’s I; location quotient (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:11:p:284-:d:1505972

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