Settlement Intention of Foreign Workers in Japan: Bayesian Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis

Mi Moe Thuzar (), Shyam Kumar Karki, Andi Holik Ramdani, Waode Hanifah Istiqomah, Tokiko Inoue and Chukiat Chaiboonsri ()
Additional contact information
Mi Moe Thuzar: Societas Research Institute, Hashimoto Foundation, 10F, AQUA terrace Saiwaicho, 8-20 Saiwaicho, Kita-Ku, Okayama city, Okayama 700-0903, Japan
Shyam Kumar Karki: Societas Research Institute, Hashimoto Foundation, 10F, AQUA terrace Saiwaicho, 8-20 Saiwaicho, Kita-Ku, Okayama city, Okayama 700-0903, Japan
Andi Holik Ramdani: Societas Research Institute, Hashimoto Foundation, 10F, AQUA terrace Saiwaicho, 8-20 Saiwaicho, Kita-Ku, Okayama city, Okayama 700-0903, Japan
Waode Hanifah Istiqomah: Societas Research Institute, Hashimoto Foundation, 10F, AQUA terrace Saiwaicho, 8-20 Saiwaicho, Kita-Ku, Okayama city, Okayama 700-0903, Japan
Tokiko Inoue: Societas Research Institute, Hashimoto Foundation, 10F, AQUA terrace Saiwaicho, 8-20 Saiwaicho, Kita-Ku, Okayama city, Okayama 700-0903, Japan
Chukiat Chaiboonsri: Modern Quantitative Economic Research Centre (MQERC), Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand

Economies, 2025, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-15

Abstract: This study examines the intentions of foreign workers living in Okayama, Japan, to stay long-term in Japan. Utilizing a Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model, this research provides a novel analytical approach that captures parameter uncertainty and accommodates the categorical nature of migrants’ settlement intentions using primary data collected via a questionnaire survey from January to March 2024. The findings reveal that residence status, previous experience of living in Japan, and graduation from a Japanese education institution significantly influence long-term settlement intentions. In addition, respondents aged 26–35 intend to stay longer than those of other ages, and those from less developed countries, such as Myanmar and Vietnam, intend to stay longer than those from China. Conversely, highly educated migrants express lower settlement intentions, suggesting a potential loss of skilled foreign labor in Japan. Notably, migrants in the Technical Intern Training Program are more likely to stay longer than those with other residence statuses, such as Highly Skilled Professional. In contrast, workers with higher education levels tend to have less intention to stay long-term, indicating a high probability of Japan losing educated foreign labor in the future. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of migrant workers in Japan, which is crucial for creating policies for foreign workers that can attract and support long-term settlement. These findings have important implications for policy, particularly in enhancing community integration, reducing workplace discrimination, and designing residence pathways that support long-term retention.

Keywords: settlement intention; foreign workers; multinominal regression analysis; Japan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/4/112/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/4/112/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:13:y:2025:i:4:p:112-:d:1636877

Access Statistics for this article

Economies is currently edited by Ms. Hongyan Zhang

More articles in Economies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().