The Asymmetric Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Quantile ARDL Analysis

Huthaifa Alqaralleh (), Ahmad Alsarayreh and Ahmad Alsaraireh
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Huthaifa Alqaralleh: Department of Economics, Business and Finance, Business School, Mutah University, Al-Karak P.O. Box 61710, Jordan
Ahmad Alsarayreh: Department of Economics, Business and Finance, Business School, Mutah University, Al-Karak P.O. Box 61710, Jordan
Ahmad Alsaraireh: Banking and Finance Departments, Business School, Mutah University, Al-Karak P.O. Box 61710, Jordan

Economies, 2025, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-21

Abstract: This study analyses the intricate connection between tourism and economic growth, emphasising significant gaps in existing literature. The study utilises a comprehensive framework encompassing tourism-led economic growth (TLEG) and economy-driven tourism growth (EDTG), highlighting the bidirectional dynamics at play. This study utilises a panel quantile ARDL regression model to analyse regional disparities and varying levels of economic and tourism development. Results demonstrate that European nations with robust tourism sectors exhibit more significant recoveries, whereas Asia–Pacific countries face heightened pressure to leverage tourism for economic stabilisation. This study demonstrates the heightened sensitivity of GDP to tourism in economic downturns, emphasising the sector’s critical role in sustaining growth during difficult periods. Long-term implications favour a strategic focus on structural factors over cyclical ones, promoting innovation, infrastructure development, and investment in human capital. This study recommends economic policies that utilise tourism’s strengths, enhance resilience, and promote diversification to achieve sustainable prosperity during economic challenges.

Keywords: tourism-led economic growth (TLEG); economy-driven tourism growth (EDTG); panel quantile ARDL regression; regional asymmetries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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