Assessing Regional Economic Performance in the Southern Thailand Special Economic Zone Using a Vine-COPAR Model

Arisara Romyen, Jianxu Liu, Songsak Sriboonchitta, Parinya Cherdchom and Paratta Prommee
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Arisara Romyen: Faculty of Economics, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
Jianxu Liu: Faculty of Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250000, China
Songsak Sriboonchitta: Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
Parinya Cherdchom: Faculty of Economics, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
Paratta Prommee: Faculty of Economics, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand

Economies, 2019, vol. 7, issue 2, 1-10

Abstract: Special economic zones (SEZ) can play an integral role in enhancing both regional and national economic growth. To explore the relationship between regional growth and the presence of an SEZ in Songkhla province, Thailand, the CD Vine–Copula AutoRegressive (CD-Vine COPAR) models were constructed using annual datasets of Songkhla’s economic performance from 1995 to 2016. The findings indicate that the D Vine-COPAR model produced better fitting predictions for the manufacturing sector, while the C Vine-COPAR models better fit for the agriculture and service sectors. A five-year forecast (2017–2021) was also created. For Vine-COPAR-based Granger causality, the Gross Provincial Production, Foreign Direct Investment and Border Trade are evidently important contributors to regional economic development. Consequently, the government should adopt comprehensive strategies to ensure comparative advantages for operating in the region based on favorable local factors.

Keywords: Vine copulas; multivariate time series; forecasting techniques; evaluation of prediction model; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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