Estimation of Transformers Health Index Based on the Markov Chain

Muhammad Sharil Yahaya, Norhafiz Azis, Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab Kadir, Jasronita Jasni, Mohd Hendra Hairi and Mohd Aizam Talib
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Muhammad Sharil Yahaya: Centre for Electromagnetic and Lightning Protection Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
Norhafiz Azis: Centre for Electromagnetic and Lightning Protection Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab Kadir: Centre for Electromagnetic and Lightning Protection Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
Jasronita Jasni: Centre for Electromagnetic and Lightning Protection Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
Mohd Hendra Hairi: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Hang Tuah Jaya, 76100 Durian Tunggal, Melaka, Malaysia
Mohd Aizam Talib: TNB Research Sdn. Bhd., No. 1, Lorong Ayer Itam, Kawasan Institut Penyelidikan, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 11, 1-11

Abstract: This paper presents a study on the application of the Markov Model (MM) to determine the transformer population states based on Health Index (HI). In total, 3195 oil samples from 373 transformers ranging in age from 1 to 25 years were analyzed. First, the HI of transformers was computed based on yearly individual oil condition monitoring data that consisted of oil quality, dissolved gases, and furanic compounds. Next, the average HI for each age was computed and the transition probabilities were obtained based on a nonlinear optimization technique. Finally, the future deterioration performance curve of the transformers was determined based on the MM chain algorithm. It was found that the MM can be used to predict the future transformers condition states. The chi-squared goodness-of-fit analysis revealed that the predicted HI for the transformer population obtained based on MM agrees with the average computed HI along the years, and the average error is 3.59%.

Keywords: transformers; Health Index (HI); Markov Model (MM); nonlinear optimization; transition probabilities; deterioration performance curve; chi-squared goodness-of-fit; asset management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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