The Impact of Shale Gas on the Cost and Feasibility of Meeting Climate Targets—A Global Energy System Model Analysis and an Exploration of Uncertainties

Sheridan Few, Ajay Gambhir, Tamaryn Napp, Adam Hawkes, Stephane Mangeon, Dan Bernie and Jason Lowe
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Sheridan Few: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Ajay Gambhir: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Tamaryn Napp: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Adam Hawkes: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Stephane Mangeon: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Dan Bernie: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Jason Lowe: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. We conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.

Keywords: shale gas; natural gas; supply curves; climate change mitigation; energy system analysis; energy scenarios; TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM); fugitive methane emissions; energy economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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