Peaking China’s CO 2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential

Qiang Liu, Alun Gu, Fei Teng, Ranping Song and Yi Chen
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Qiang Liu: National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China
Alun Gu: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Fei Teng: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Ranping Song: World Resource Institute, Washington, DC 20002, USA
Yi Chen: National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100038, China

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: China has submitted its nationally determined contribution to peak its energy-related emissions around 2030. To understand how China might develop its economy while controlling CO 2 emissions, this study surveys a number of recent modeling scenarios that project the country’s economic growth, energy mix, and associated emissions until 2050. Our analysis suggests that China’s CO 2 emissions will continue to grow until 2040 or 2050 and will approximately double their 2010 level without additional policy intervention. The alternative scenario, however, suggests that peaking CO 2 emissions around 2030 requires the emission growth rate to be reduced by 2% below the reference level. This step would result in a plateau in China’s emissions from 2020 to 2030. This paper also proposed a deep de-carbonization pathway for China that is consistent with China’s goal of peaking emissions by around 2030, which can best be achieved through a combination of improvements in energy and carbon intensities. Our analysis also indicated that the potential for energy intensity decline will be limited over time. Thus, the peaking will be largely dependent on the share of non-fossil fuel energy in primary energy consumption.

Keywords: emission peaking; China; mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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