Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

Qian Zhang, Xunmin Ou, Xiaoyu Yan and Xiliang Zhang
Additional contact information
Qian Zhang: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Xunmin Ou: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Xiaoyu Yan: Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
Xiliang Zhang: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-15

Abstract: This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV) in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China), analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO 2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.

Keywords: electric vehicles (EV); market share; energy consumption; CO 2 emission reduction; discrete choice model; Beijing case (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (36)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/2/228/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/2/228/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:228-:d:90396

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().