The Contribution of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals

Ajay Gambhir, Tamaryn Napp, Adam Hawkes, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Pallav Purohit (), Fabian Wagner, Dan Bernie and Jason Lowe
Additional contact information
Ajay Gambhir: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Tamaryn Napp: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Adam Hawkes: Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Lena Höglund-Isaksson: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
Wilfried Winiwarter: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
Fabian Wagner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
Dan Bernie: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK
Jason Lowe: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-23

Abstract: This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed at meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO 2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors, coupled with a model covering non-CO 2 emissions (GAINS), using the latest global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that in general non-CO 2 mitigation measures are less costly than CO 2 mitigation measures, with the majority of their abatement potential achievable at US2005$100/tCO 2 e or less throughout the 21st century (compared to a marginal CO 2 mitigation cost which is already greater than this by 2030 in the most stringent mitigation scenario). As a result, the total cumulative discounted cost over the period 2010–2100 (at a 5% discount rate) of limiting global average temperature change to 2.5 °C by 2100 is $48 trillion (about 1.6% of cumulative discounted GDP over the period 2010–2100) if only CO 2 from the fossil fuel and industrial sectors is targeted, whereas the cost falls to $17 trillion (0.6% of GDP) by including non-CO 2 GHG mitigation in the portfolio of options—a cost reduction of about 65%. The criticality of non-CO 2 mitigation recommends further research, given its relatively less well-explored nature when compared to CO 2 mitigation.

Keywords: non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (GHGs); climate change mitigation; long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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