A New MCP Method of Wind Speed Temporal Interpolation and Extrapolation Considering Wind Speed Mixed Uncertainty

Xiao Liu, Xu Lai and Jin Zou
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Xiao Liu: School of Water Resource and Hydro Electric Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China
Xu Lai: School of Water Resource and Hydro Electric Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China
Jin Zou: Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, China

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-21

Abstract: In this paper, a missing wind speed data temporal interpolation and extrapolation method in the wind energy industry was investigated. Given that traditional methods have previously ignored part of mixed uncertainty of wind speed, a concrete granular computing method is constructed and a new Measure–Correlate–Predict (MCP) method of wind speed data temporal interpolation and extrapolation considering all mixed uncertainties is proposed, based on granular computing theory by adopting the cloud model method, support vector regression method, artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, and fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm as tools. The importance of considering mixed wind speed uncertainty and the suitability of using granular computing method are illustrated, and wind speed mixed uncertainty analysis is implemented, then, recommended values and estimation tools for wind speed measurement uncertainty and combined uncertainty are provided. An interpolation case of two practical meteorological sites in central Southern China was used to implement and validate the method proposed in this paper. The following conclusions are reached: (a) by using the method proposed in this paper, mixed uncertainty of wind speed can be considered, comparing to other MCP methods used for purposes of comparison, a better estimation of the wind speed is provided, and most evaluation metrics employed in this analysis were superior to other methods, that is to say, the accuracy of the wind resource assessment improved, and the risks of wind farm construction were reduced; (b) granular computing method is suitable for the issue of wind speed data interpolation and extrapolation considering wind speed mixed uncertainty; (c) mixed uncertainty of wind speed can be divided into three levels, and recommended values of granularity are minimum interval of records, 0.3–0.8 m/s, and 1–3 m/s, respectively.

Keywords: measure-correlate-predict method; mixed uncertainty of wind speed; granular computing theory; cloud model; support vector regression; neural network; genetic algorithm; fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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