Cost Projection of State of the Art Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles Up to 2030

Gert Berckmans, Maarten Messagie, Jelle Smekens, Noshin Omar, Lieselot Vanhaverbeke and Joeri Van Mierlo
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Gert Berckmans: MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Maarten Messagie: MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Jelle Smekens: MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Noshin Omar: MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Lieselot Vanhaverbeke: MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Joeri Van Mierlo: MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-20

Abstract: The negative impact of the automotive industry on climate change can be tackled by changing from fossil driven vehicles towards battery electric vehicles with no tailpipe emissions. However their adoption mainly depends on the willingness to pay for the extra cost of the traction battery. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of a battery pack in 2030 when considering two aspects: firstly a decade of research will ensure an improvement in material sciences altering a battery’s chemical composition. Secondly by considering the price erosion due to the production cost optimization, by maturing of the market and by evolving towards to a mass-manufacturing situation. The cost of a lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ; Anode: graphite) as well as silicon based lithium-ion battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ; Anode: silicon alloy), expected to be on the market in 10 years, will be predicted to tackle the first aspect. The second aspect will be considered by combining process-based cost calculations with learning curves, which takes the increasing battery market into account. The 100 dollar/kWh sales barrier will be reached respectively between 2020-2025 for silicon based lithium-ion batteries and 2025–2030 for NMC batteries, which will give a boost to global electric vehicle adoption.

Keywords: process-based cost modeling; NMC battery; silicon lithium-ion battery; market prediction; learning curves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (75)

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