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Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

Arne Höltl (), Cathy Macharis () and Klaas De Brucker ()
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Arne Höltl: Department of Business Technology and Operations, Research Group MOBI, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, BE-1050 Brussels, Belgium
Cathy Macharis: Department of Business Technology and Operations, Research Group MOBI, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, BE-1050 Brussels, Belgium
Klaas De Brucker: Research Centre for Economics and Corporate Sustainability (ECON-CEDON), Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Warmoesberg 26, BE-1000 Brussels, Belgium

Energies, 2017, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society’s mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a ‘business as usual’ case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.

Keywords: energy efficiency; electric and hybrid vehicles; CO 2 emissions; environmental effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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