A Risk-Based Methodology and Tool Combining Threat Analysis and Power System Security Assessment

Emanuele Ciapessoni, Diego Cirio, Andrea Pitto, Pietro Marcacci, Matteo Lacavalla, Stefano Massucco, Federico Silvestro and Marino Sforna
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Emanuele Ciapessoni: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Via Rubattino 54, Milan 20134, Italy
Diego Cirio: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Via Rubattino 54, Milan 20134, Italy
Andrea Pitto: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Via Rubattino 54, Milan 20134, Italy
Pietro Marcacci: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Via Rubattino 54, Milan 20134, Italy
Matteo Lacavalla: Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Via Rubattino 54, Milan 20134, Italy
Stefano Massucco: Department of Naval, Electric, Electronic and Telecommunication Engineering, University of Genova, Via Opera Pia 11a, Genova 16145, Italy
Federico Silvestro: Department of Naval, Electric, Electronic and Telecommunication Engineering, University of Genova, Via Opera Pia 11a, Genova 16145, Italy
Marino Sforna: TERNA (Italian TSO), V. G. Galilei 18, Pero (MI) 20016, Italy

Energies, 2017, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: A thorough investigation of power system security requires the analysis of the vulnerabilities to natural and man-related threats which potentially trigger multiple contingencies. In particular, extreme weather events are becoming more and more frequent due to climate changes and often cause large load disruptions on the system, thus the support for security enhancement gets tricky. Exploiting data coming from forecasting systems in a security assessment environment can help assess the risk of operating power systems subject to the disturbances provoked by the weather event itself. In this context, the paper proposes a security assessment methodology, based on an updated definition of risk suitable for power system risk evaluations. Big data analytics can be useful to get an accurate model for weather-related threats. The relevant software (SW) platform integrates the security assessment methodology with prediction systems which provide short term forecasts of the threats affecting the system. The application results on a real wet snow threat scenario in the Italian High Voltage grid demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security approaches, by complementing the conventional “N ? 1” security criterion and exploiting big data to link the security assessment phase to the analysis of incumbent threats.

Keywords: blackouts; contingency; extreme events; power systems; probability; risk; security; threats; vulnerability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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