Outlier Events of Solar Forecasts for Regional Power Grid in Japan Using JMA Mesoscale Model

Hideaki Ohtake, Fumichika Uno, Takashi Oozeki, Yoshinori Yamada, Hideaki Takenaka and Takashi Y. Nakajima
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Hideaki Ohtake: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
Fumichika Uno: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
Takashi Oozeki: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
Yoshinori Yamada: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
Hideaki Takenaka: Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Ibaraki 3058505, Japan
Takashi Y. Nakajima: Research and Information Center, Tokai University, Tokyo 1510063, Japan

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: To realize the safety control of electric power systems under high penetration of photovoltaic power systems, accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts using numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are becoming increasingly important. The objective of this study is to understand meteorological characteristics pertaining to large errors (i.e., outlier events) of GHI day-ahead forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency, for nine electric power areas during four years from 2014 to 2017. Under outlier events in GHI day-ahead forecasts, several sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns were found in 80 events during the four years; (a) a western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean (frequency per 80 outlier events; 48.8%), (b) stationary fronts (20.0%), (c) a synoptic-scale cyclone (18.8%), and (d) typhoons (tropical cyclones) (8.8%) around the Japanese islands. In this study, the four case studies of the worst outlier events were performed. A remarkable SLP pattern was the case of the western edge of anticyclone over the Pacific Ocean around Japan. The comparison between regionally integrated GHI day-ahead forecast errors and cloudiness forecasts suggests that the issue of accuracy of cloud forecasts in high- and mid-levels troposphere in NWPs will remain in the future.

Keywords: photovoltaic (PV) power generation; global horizontal irradiance (GHI), numerical weather prediction (NWP), outlier events; day-ahead forecast; regional integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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