Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants

Hyun-Chul Lee, Eul-Bum Lee and Douglas Alleman
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Hyun-Chul Lee: Korea East-West Power Agency Company, Ulsan 44543, Korea
Eul-Bum Lee: Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology & Graduate School of Engineering Mastership, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang 37673, Korea
Douglas Alleman: Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 10, 1-15

Abstract: To date, Korea has built four 1000 MW gross-power ultra-critical coal-fired power plants. With the introduction of this new power plant type, there is a need for the development of best practices and lessons learned associated with its construction. One such need identified as a gap in literature is the early project planning estimation of project duration. To fill this research gap, this study utilized the Program Evaluation and Review Technique/Critical Path Method (PERT/CPM) and Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the appropriate construction duration at the planning stage of a new 1000 MW class coal-fired power plant project. Through the case study of the four Korean ultra-critical coal-fired power plants in operation, there was found an 85% likelihood of construction duration to be between 64 and 68 months. From interviews with subject matter experts, the most significant risk factors were found to be labor strikes and construction safety incidents. The findings within aid early planning decision makers by providing a replicable and accurate schedule estimation process. While the findings are based on Korean power plants, the results of this research can be used as a tool for coal-fired power plant construction schedule estimation worldwide.

Keywords: ultra-critical; coal-fired; power plant; schedule estimation; PERT/CPM; monte carlo; risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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