Winds of Change: How Up-To-Date Forecasting Methods Could Help Change Brazilian Wind Energy Policy and Save Billions of US$

Fernando G. Bernardes, Douglas A. G. Vieira, Vasile Palade and Rodney R. Saldanha
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Fernando G. Bernardes: Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering—Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Douglas A. G. Vieira: PPMMC-CEFETMG Av. Amazonas 7675, 30510-000 Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Vasile Palade: Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
Rodney R. Saldanha: Graduate Program in Electrical Engineering—Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-22

Abstract: This paper proposes a revaluation of the Brazilian wind energy policy framework and the energy auction requirements. The proposed model deals with the four major issues associated with the wind policy framework that are: long-term wind speed sampling, wind speed forecasting reliability, energy commercialization, and the wind farm profitability. Brazilian wind policy, cross-checked against other countries policies, showed to be too restrictive and outdated. This paper proposes its renewal, through the adoption of international standards by Brazilian policy-makers, reducing the wind time sampling necessary to implement wind farms. To support such a policy change, a new wind forecasting method is designed. The method is based on fuzzy time series shaped with a statistical significance approach. It can be used to forecast wind behavior, by drawing the most-likely wind energy generation intervals given a confidence degree. The proposed method is useful to evaluate a wind farm profitability and design the biding strategy in auctions.

Keywords: energy policy-framework; wind energy; renewable energy; energy auctions; forecasting; electricity market; fuzzy time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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