Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Solar Power Outputs Based on the Naïve Bayes Classifier and Kriging Models

Seungbeom Nam and Jin Hur
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Seungbeom Nam: Department of Electrical Engineering, Sangmyung University, Seoul 03016, Korea
Jin Hur: Department of Electrical Engineering, Sangmyung University, Seoul 03016, Korea

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-15

Abstract: Solar power’s variability makes managing power system planning and operation difficult. Facilitating a high level of integration of solar power resources into a grid requires maintaining the fundamental power system so that it is stable when interconnected. Accurate and reliable forecasting helps to maintain the system safely given large-scale solar power resources; this paper therefore proposes a probabilistic forecasting approach to solar resources using the R statistics program, applying a hybrid model that considers spatio-temporal peculiarities. Information on how the weather varies at sites of interest is often unavailable, so we use a spatial modeling procedure called kriging to estimate precise data at the solar power plants. The kriging method implements interpolation with geographical property data. In this paper, we perform day-ahead forecasts of solar power based on the probability in one-hour intervals by using a Naïve Bayes Classifier model, which is a classification algorithm. We augment forecasting by taking into account the overall data distribution and applying the Gaussian probability distribution. To validate the proposed hybrid forecasting model, we perform a comparison of the proposed model with a persistence model using the normalized mean absolute error (NMAE). Furthermore, we use empirical data from South Korea’s meteorological towers (MET) to interpolate weather variables at points of interest.

Keywords: hybrid spatio-temporal model; probabilistic forecasting; solar power forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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