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Exploring Energy Pathways for the Low-Carbon Transformation in India—A Model-Based Analysis

Linus Lawrenz (), Bobby Xiong (), Luise Lorenz (), Alexandra Krumm (), Hans Hosenfeld (), Thorsten Burandt (), Konstantin Löffler (), Pao-Yu Oei () and Christian Von Hirschhausen ()
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Linus Lawrenz: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Bobby Xiong: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Luise Lorenz: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Alexandra Krumm: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Hans Hosenfeld: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Thorsten Burandt: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Konstantin Löffler: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Pao-Yu Oei: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Christian Von Hirschhausen: TU Berlin, Workgroup for Infrastructure and Policy, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-23

Abstract: With an increasing expected energy demand and current dominance of coal electrification, India plays a major role in global carbon policies and the future low-carbon transformation. This paper explores three energy pathways for India until 2050 by applying the linear, cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD). The benchmark scenario “limited emissions only” (LEO) is based on ambitious targets set out by the Paris Agreement. A more conservative “business as usual” (BAU) scenario is sketched out along the lines of the New Policies scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA). On the more ambitious side, we explore the potential implications of supplying the Indian economy entirely with renewable energies with the “100% renewable energy sources” (100% RES) scenario. Overall, our results suggest that a transformation process towards a low-carbon energy system in the power, heat, and transportation sectors until 2050 is technically feasible. Solar power is likely to establish itself as the key energy source by 2050 in all scenarios, given the model’s underlying emission limits and technical parameters. The paper concludes with an analysis of potential social, economic and political barriers to be overcome for the needed Indian low-carbon transformation.

Keywords: energy system modeling; decarbonization; global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD); renewables; India; energy transformation; energy transition; sector coupling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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