Key Development Factors of Hydrothermal Processes in Germany by 2030: A Fuzzy Logic Analysis

Daniel Reißmann, Daniela Thrän and Alberto Bezama
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Daniel Reißmann: Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Daniela Thrän: Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Alberto Bezama: Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 12, 1-20

Abstract: To increase resource efficiency, it is necessary to use biogenic residues in the most efficient and value-enhancing manner. For high water-containing biomass, hydrothermal processes (HTP) are particularly promising as they require wet conditions for optimal processing anyway. In Germany, however, HTP have not yet reached the industrial level, although suitable substrates are available and technological progress has been made in previous years. This study aims to determine why this is by identifying key factors that need to occur HTP development in Germany until 2030. By using results of previous analyses within this context (i.e., literature review, SWOT analysis, expert survey, and focus group workshop) and combining them with the results of an expert workshop and Delphi-survey executed during this analysis, a comprehensive information basis on important development factors is created. Fuzzy logic is used to analyze these factors in terms of interconnections, relevance, and probability of occurrence by 2030. The results show that technological factors, such as a cost-efficient process water treatment and increased system integration of HTP into bio-waste and wastewater treatment plants, are given high relevance and probability of occurrence. The adaptation of the legal framework, for example, the approval of end products from HTP as standard fuels, has very high relevance but such adaptions are considered relatively unlikely.

Keywords: hydrothermal processes; Germany; fuzzy Delphi method; fuzzy logic cognitive map (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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