An Improved Grey Model and Scenario Analysis for Carbon Intensity Forecasting in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

Fei Ye, Xinxiu Xie, Li Zhang and Xiaoling Hu
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Fei Ye: School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, 510640 Guangzhou, China
Xinxiu Xie: School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, 510640 Guangzhou, China
Li Zhang: School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology, 510640 Guangzhou, China
Xiaoling Hu: Guangdong Food and Drug Vocational College, Guangzhou, China

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: In this paper, an improved grey model and scenario analysis, GA-GM(1,N) is proposed to forecast the carbon intensity in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, one of the most developed regions in China. Moreover, to show the advantage and feasibility of the proposed model, the forecasting results of the GA-GM(1,N) model are compared with that of a single-variable grey model (GM (1,1)) and a multivariable form (GM(1,N)). Data from one sample period (2005–2012) are used to develop the models, and data from another sample period (2013–2015) are used to test them. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is applied to measure the accuracy of prediction. The results show that, of the three models, GA-GM(1,N) produces the best carbon intensity forecasts, with MAPEs of 0.4–1.4% and 0.04–0.4% in the development and testing periods respectively. This indicates that the optimization of the genetic algorithm is effective. The realization of carbon reduction targets in different cities is also explored by combining grey models with scenario analysis. Only Guangzhou could achieve its reduction target under all scenarios, and it can serve as a reference for other cities. Policy recommendations are provided based on these results.

Keywords: carbon intensity forecasting; improved Grey model; genetic algorithm; scenario analysis; the Pearl River Delta region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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