Wind Power Forecasting Based on Echo State Networks and Long Short-Term Memory

Erick López, Carlos Valle, Héctor Allende, Esteban Gil and Henrik Madsen
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Erick López: Departamento de Informática, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso 2390123, Chile
Carlos Valle: Departamento de Informática, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso 2390123, Chile
Héctor Allende: Departamento de Informática, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso 2390123, Chile
Esteban Gil: Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso 2390123, Chile
Henrik Madsen: Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-22

Abstract: Wind power generation has presented an important development around the world. However, its integration into electrical systems presents numerous challenges due to the variable nature of the wind. Therefore, to maintain an economical and reliable electricity supply, it is necessary to accurately predict wind generation. The Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT) has been proposed to solve this task using the power curve associated with a wind farm. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) model complex non-linear relationships without requiring explicit mathematical expressions that relate the variables involved. In particular, two types of RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Network (ESN), have shown good results in time series forecasting. In this work, we present an LSTM+ESN architecture that combines the characteristics of both networks. An architecture similar to an ESN is proposed, but using LSTM blocks as units in the hidden layer. The training process of this network has two key stages: (i) the hidden layer is trained with a descending gradient method online using one epoch; (ii) the output layer is adjusted with a regularized regression. In particular, the case is proposed where Step (i) is used as a target for the input signal, in order to extract characteristics automatically as the autoencoder approach; and in the second stage (ii), a quantile regression is used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the expected target. The experimental results show that LSTM+ESN using the autoencoder and quantile regression outperforms the WPPT model in all global metrics used.

Keywords: wind power forecasting; long short-term memory; echo state network; recurrent neural networks; time series; data science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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