Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Mohammad Aslam Uqaili, Khanji Harijan, Mohd Wazir Mustafa, Md. Mizanur Rahman and M. Waris Ali Khan
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Nayyar Hussain Mirjat: Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan
Mohammad Aslam Uqaili: Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan
Khanji Harijan: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan
Mohd Wazir Mustafa: Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University Technology Malaysia (UTM), 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Md. Mizanur Rahman: Department of Thermo Fluids, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University Technology Malaysia (UTM), 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
M. Waris Ali Khan: Faculty of Industrial Management, University Malaysia Pahang (UMP), Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Kuantan 26300, Malaysia

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-33

Abstract: The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC), have been ranked using the Expert Choice ® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

Keywords: Pakistan; electricity crises; sustainable energy planning; AHP; Expert Choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

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