Probabilistic Steady-State Operation and Interaction Analysis of Integrated Electricity, Gas and Heating Systems

Lun Yang, Xia Zhao, Xinyi Li and Wei Yan
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Lun Yang: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China
Xia Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China
Xinyi Li: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China
Wei Yan: State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 4, 1-21

Abstract: The existing studies on probabilistic steady-state analysis of integrated energy systems (IES) are limited to integrated electricity and gas networks or integrated electricity and heating networks. This paper proposes a probabilistic steady-state analysis of integrated electricity, gas and heating networks (EGH-IES). Four typical operation modes of an EGH-IES are presented at first. The probabilistic energy flow problem of the EGS-IES considering its operation modes and correlated uncertainties in wind/solar power and electricity/gas/heat loads is then formulated and solved by the Monte Carlo method based on Latin hypercube sampling and Nataf transformation. Numerical simulations are conducted on a sample EGH-IES working in the “electricity/gas following heat” mode to verify the probabilistic analysis proposed in this paper and to study the effects of uncertainties and correlations on the operation of the EGH-IES, especially uncertainty transmissions among the subnetworks.

Keywords: integrated energy system; probabilistic energy flow analysis; interaction; correlation; Monte Carlo simulation; Nataf transformation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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