Electricity Purchase Optimization Decision Based on Data Mining and Bayesian Game

Yajing Gao, Xiaojie Zhou, Jiafeng Ren, Zheng Zhao and Fushen Xue
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Yajing Gao: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Xiaojie Zhou: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Jiafeng Ren: State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Zheng Zhao: Department of automation, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Fushen Xue: State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd., Suzhou Power Supply Branch, Suzhou 215004, China

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-19

Abstract: The openness of the electricity retail market results in the power retailers facing fierce competition in the market. This article aims to analyze the electricity purchase optimization decision-making of each power retailer with the background of the big data era. First, in order to guide the power retailer to make a purchase of electricity, this paper considers the users’ historical electricity consumption data and a comprehensive consideration of multiple factors, then uses the wavelet neural network (WNN) model based on “meteorological similarity day (MSD)” to forecast the user load demand. Second, in order to guide the quotation of the power retailer, this paper considers the multiple factors affecting the electricity price to cluster the sample set, and establishes a Genetic algorithm- back propagation (GA-BP) neural network model based on fuzzy clustering (FC) to predict the short-term market clearing price (MCP). Thirdly, based on Sealed-bid Auction (SA) in game theory, a Bayesian Game Model (BGM) of the power retailer’s bidding strategy is constructed, and the optimal bidding strategy is obtained by obtaining the Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) under different probability distributions. Finally, a practical example is proposed to prove that the model and method can provide an effective reference for the decision-making optimization of the sales company.

Keywords: power retailer; load forecasting; fuzzy clustering; price forecasting; Bayesian game (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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