Decomposing Air Pollutant Emissions in Asia: Determinants and Projections

Peter Rafaj and Markus Amann
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Peter Rafaj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Markus Amann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-14

Abstract: High levels of air pollution pose an urgent social and public health challenge in many Asian regions. This study evaluates the role of key factors that determined the changes in emission levels in China, India and Japan over the past 25 years. While emissions of air pollutants have been declining in Japan since the 1990s, China and India have experienced a rapid growth in pollution levels in recent years. Around 2005, control measures for sulfur emissions started to deliver expected reductions in China, followed by cuts in nitrogen oxides ten years later. Despite recent policy interventions, growing emission trends in India persist. A decomposition analysis of emission-driving factors indicates that emission levels would have been at least two-times higher without the improvements in energy intensity and efficiency, combined with end-of-pipe measures. Due to the continuous reliance on fossil fuels, the abatement effect of a cleaner fuel mix was in most cases significantly smaller than other factors. A reassessment of emission projections developed in the past suggests a decisive impact of energy and environmental policies. It is expected that targeted legislative instruments will play a dominant role in achieving future air-quality goals in Asia.

Keywords: air pollution; decomposition; energy intensity; end-of-pipe measures; emission scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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