A Bottom-Up Model for Household Load Profile Based on the Consumption Behavior of Residents

Bingtuan Gao, Xiaofeng Liu and Zhenyu Zhu
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Bingtuan Gao: School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Xiaofeng Liu: School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Zhenyu Zhu: School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Energies, 2018, vol. 11, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: The forecasting of the load profile of the domestic sector is an area of increased concern for the power grid as it appears in many applications, such as grid operations, demand side management, energy trading, and so forth. Accordingly, a bottom-up forecasting framework is presented in this paper based upon bottom level data about the electricity consumption of household appliances. In the proposed framework, a load profile for group households is obtained with a similar day extraction module, household behavior analysis module, and household behavior prediction module. Concretely, similar day extraction module is the core of the prediction and is employed to extract similar historical days by considering the external environmental and household internal influence factors on energy consumption. The household behavior analysis module is used to analyse and formulate the consumption behavior probability of appliances according to the statistical characteristics of appliances’ switch state in historical similar days. Based on the former two modules, household behavior prediction module is responsible for the load profile of group households. Finally, a case study based on the measured data in a practical residential community is performed to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed bottom-up household load forecasting approach.

Keywords: household load profile; consumption behavior; bottom-up; similar day (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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