Research on Dynamic Evolution Simulation and Sustainability Evaluation Model of China’s Power Supply and Demand System

Jin-peng Liu, Yu Tian, Hao Zheng and Tao Yi
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Jin-peng Liu: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yu Tian: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Hao Zheng: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Tao Yi: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: Power supply and demand systems are important support systems for industrial production and residents’ lives. They have multiple influencing factors, and complex mechanisms of interaction exist among these factors. In view of the present sustainability problems faced by China’s power supply and demand system, this research adopts a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the evolution of China’s power supply and demand system, and analyzes the interaction mechanism of various elements of the system. Based on this, an innovative index system for the evaluation of the sustainability of power supply and demand systems is proposed based on the four elements of total amount, structure, technology and environment. Furthermore, by integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and State Space (SS) method, a PCA-SS evaluation model is constructed to explore the development bottleneck of China’s power supply and demand system. The results show that there is still a large gap between the actual sustainability and the ideal range, and that the sustainability of structural and environmental layers needs further improvement. This research expands the knowledge system regarding the evaluation of the sustainability of power supply and demand systems and provides a theoretical reference for the optimization of China’s power supply and demand system.

Keywords: power system; supply and demand; dynamic evolution simulation; sustainable development; strategies; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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