Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

Philipp Hauser, Sina Heidari, Christoph Weber and Dominik Möst
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Philipp Hauser: Chair of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Technische Universität Dresden, D-01062 Dresden, Germany
Sina Heidari: Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, D-45127 Essen, Germany
Christoph Weber: Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, D-45127 Essen, Germany
Dominik Möst: Chair of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Technische Universität Dresden, D-01062 Dresden, Germany

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-22

Abstract: This study aims to investigate the possible congestion in the German natural gas system, which may arise due to an increase in the gas consumption in the power sector in extreme weather events. For this purpose, we develop a two-stage approach to couple an electricity model and a natural gas network model. In this approach, we model the electricity system in the first stage to determine the gas demand in the power sector. We then use the calculated gas demand to model gas networks in the second stage, where we deploy a newly developed gas network model. As a case study, we primarily evaluate our methodological approach by re-simulating the cold weather event in 2012, which is seen as an extreme situation for the gas grids, challenging the security of supply. Accordingly, we use our coupled model to investigate potential congestion in the natural gas networks for the year 2030, using a scenario of a sustainable energy transition, where an increase in the gas consumption in the power industry is likely. Results for 2030 show a 51% increase in yearly gas demand in the power industry compared to 2012. Further, the simulation results show a gas supply interruption in two nodes in 2012. In 2030, the same nodes may face an (partial) interruption of gas supply in cold winter days such as the 6th of February 2012. In this day, the load shedding in the natural gas networks can increase up to 19 GWh th in 2030. We also argue that the interrupted electricity production, due to local gas interruptions, can easily be compensated by other power plants. However, these local gas interruptions may endanger the local heat production.

Keywords: coupling of energy sectors; gas networks; electricity and heat markets; energy security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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