Study on A Simple Model to Forecast the Electricity Demand under China’s New Normal Situation

Jinchai Lin, Kaiwei Zhu, Zhen Liu, Jenny Lieu and Xianchun Tan
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Jinchai Lin: Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Kaiwei Zhu: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Bejing 100190, China
Zhen Liu: Low-carbon Energy Research Center, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China
Jenny Lieu: ETH Zurich, Transdisciplinarity Lab (USYS TdLab), Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
Xianchun Tan: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Bejing 100190, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-28

Abstract: A simple model was built to predict the national and regional electricity demand by sectors under China’s new normal situation. In the model, the data dimensionality reduction method and the Grey model (GM(1,1)) were combined and adopted to disaggregate the national economic growth rate into regional levels and forecast each region’s contribution rate to the national economic growth and regional industrial structure. Then, a bottom–up accounting model that considered the impacts of regional industrial structure transformation, regional energy efficiency, and regional household electric consumption was built to predict national and regional electric demand. Based on the predicted values, this paper analyzed the spatial changes in electric demand, and our results indicate the following. Firstly, the proposed model has high accuracy in national electricity demand prediction: the relative error in 2017 and 2018 was 2.90% and 2.60%, respectively. Secondly, China’s electric demand will not peak before 2025, and it is estimated to be between 7772.16 and 8458.85 billion kW·h in 2025, which is an increase of 31.28–42.88% compared with the total electricity consumption in 2016. The proportion of electricity demand in the mid-west regions will increase, while the eastern region will continue to be the country’s load center. Thirdly, under China’s new normal, households and the tertiary industry will be the main driving forces behind the increases in electric demand. Lastly, the drop in China’s economy under the new normal will lead to a decline in the total electricity demand, but it will not evidently change the electricity consumption share of the primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and household sector.

Keywords: China’s new normal; electricity demand; industrial structure transformation; spatial distribution; data dimensionality reduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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