Coupling Structural Decomposition Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate CO 2 Emission Intensity in China

Ling Li, Ling Tang and Junrong Zhang
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Ling Li: International School of Economics and Management, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
Ling Tang: School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Junrong Zhang: Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 12, 1-23

Abstract: A coupled structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and sensitivity analysis approach is developed to explore the drivers of China’s CO 2 emission intensity at both general and sectoral levels and from both ex-post and ex-ante perspectives. Two steps are involved—structural decomposition and sensitivity analysis. First, the popular factor decomposition method, SDA, is implemented to identify which drivers “have” made the largest contribution to emission intensity changes. Second, an emerging ex-ante approach, sensitivity analysis, is introduced to answer how and to what extent such drivers “will” influence future emission intensity at a sectoral level. Based on China’s input-output tables for 1997–2012, the empirical study provides a hotspot map of China’s energy system. (1) Direct-emission coefficient and technology coefficient are observed as the top two overall drivers. (2) For the former, reducing direct-emission coefficient in an emission-intensity sector (e.g., electricity and heat sectors) by 1% will mitigate China’s total emission intensity by at least 0.05%. (3) For the latter, future emission intensity is super-sensitive to direct transactions in emission-intensity sectors (particularly the chemical industry with elasticities up to 0.82%).

Keywords: CO 2 emission intensity; Structural decomposition analysis; SDA; Sensitivity analysis; Input-output model; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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