Cost Forecasting Model of Transformer Substation Projects Based on Data Inconsistency Rate and Modified Deep Convolutional Neural Network

Hongwei Wang, Yuansheng Huang, Chong Gao and Yuqing Jiang
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Hongwei Wang: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yuansheng Huang: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Chong Gao: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yuqing Jiang: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 16, 1-21

Abstract: Precise and steady substation project cost forecasting is of great significance to guarantee the economic construction and valid administration of electric power engineering. This paper develops a novel hybrid approach for cost forecasting based on a data inconsistency rate (DIR), a modified fruit fly optimization algorithm (MFOA) and a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN). Firstly, the DIR integrated with the MFOA is adopted for input feature selection. Simultaneously, the MFOA is utilized to realize parameter optimization in the DCNN. The effectiveness of the MFOA–DIR–DCNN has been validated by a case study that selects 128 substation projects in different regions for training and testing. The modeling results demonstrate that this established approach is better than the contrast methods with regard to forecasting accuracy and robustness. Thus, the developed technique is feasible for the cost prediction of substation projects in various voltage levels.

Keywords: substation project cost forecasting model; feature selection; data inconsistency rate; modified fruit fly optimization algorithm; deep convolutional neural network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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