Analysis of Influencing Factors and Trend Forecast of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption in China Based on Expanded STIRPAT Model

Zhen Li, Yanbin Li and Shuangshuang Shao
Additional contact information
Zhen Li: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yanbin Li: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Shuangshuang Shao: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 16, 1-14

Abstract: With the convening of the annual global climate conference, the issue of global climate change has gradually become the focus of attention of the international community. As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China is facing a serious situation of carbon emission reduction. This paper uses the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) method to calculate the carbon emissions of energy consumption in China from 1996 to 2016, and uses it as a dependent variable to analyze the influencing factors. In this paper, five factors, total population, per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product), urbanization level, primary energy consumption structure, technology level, and industrial structure are selected as the influencing factors of carbon emissions. Based on the expanded STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model, the influencing degree of different factors on carbon emissions of energy consumption is analyzed. The results show that the order of impact on carbon emissions from high to low is total population, per capita GDP, technology level, industrial structure, primary energy consumption structure, and urbanization level. On the basis of the above research, the carbon emissions of China′s energy consumption in the future are predicted under eight different scenarios. The results show that, when the population and economy keep a low growth rate, while improving the technology level can effectively control carbon emissions from energy consumption, China′s carbon emissions from energy consumption will reach 302.82 million tons in 2020.

Keywords: energy consumption; carbon emission; IPCC method; factor analysis; trend forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/16/3054/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/16/3054/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:16:p:3054-:d:255797

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().