Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level

Qodri Febrilian Erahman, Nadhilah Reyseliani, Widodo Wahyu Purwanto and Mahmud Sudibandriyo
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Qodri Febrilian Erahman: Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia
Nadhilah Reyseliani: Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia
Widodo Wahyu Purwanto: Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia
Mahmud Sudibandriyo: Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 16, 1-25

Abstract: The high energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the road transport sector in Indonesia are mainly caused by the use of passenger cars. This situation is predicted to continue due to the increase in car ownership. Scenarios are arranged to examine the potential reductions in energy demand and CO 2 emissions in comparison with the business as usual (BAU) condition between 2016 and 2050 by controlling car intensity (fuel economy) and activity (vehicle-km). The intensity is controlled through the introduction of new car technologies, while the activity is controlled through the enactment of fuel taxes. This study aims to analyze the energy demand and CO 2 emissions of passenger cars in Indonesia not only for a period in the past (2010–2015) but also based on projections through to 2050, by employing a provincially disaggregated bottom-up model. The provincially disaggregated model shows more accurate estimations for passenger car energy demands. The results suggest that energy demand and CO 2 emissions in 2050 will be 50 million liter gasoline equivalent (LGE) and 110 million tons of CO 2 , respectively. The five provinces with the highest CO 2 emissions in 2050 are projected to be West Java, Banten, East Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi. The projected analysis for 2050 shows that new car technology and fuel tax scenarios can reduce energy demand from the BAU condition by 7.72% and 3.18% and CO 2 emissions by 15.96% and 3.18%, respectively.

Keywords: energy demand; CO 2 emissions; Indonesia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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