Quantifying the Measurement Error on England and Wales EPC Ratings

Jenny Crawley, Phillip Biddulph, Paul J. Northrop, Jez Wingfield, Tadj Oreszczyn and Cliff Elwell
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Jenny Crawley: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Phillip Biddulph: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Paul J. Northrop: Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Jez Wingfield: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Tadj Oreszczyn: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Cliff Elwell: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-19

Abstract: Domestic Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are used in the UK to provide energy efficiency ratings for use in policy and investment decisions on individual dwellings and at a stock level. There is evidence that the process of creating an EPC introduces measurement error such that repeat assessments of the same property give different ratings, compromising their reliability. This study presents a novel error analysis to estimate the size of this effect, using repeated EPC assessments of 1.6 million existing dwellings in England and Wales. A statistical model of how measurement error contributes to variation between repeated measurements is set out, and exploratory data analysis is used to decide how to apply this model to the available data. The results predict that the one standard deviation measurement error decreases with EPC rating, from around ± 8.0 EPC points on a rating of 35 to ±2.4 on a rating of 85. This predicted error is higher than the limit recommended in UK guidance except in very efficient buildings; it can also result in dwellings being rated in the wrong EPC band, for example it was estimated that 24% of band D homes are rated as band C.

Keywords: uncertainty; energy performance certificates; domestic buildings; dataset; mathematical modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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