Kick Risk Forecasting and Evaluating During Drilling Based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Hu Yin, Menghan Si, Qian Li, Jinke Zhang and Liming Dai
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Hu Yin: School of Oil & Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
Menghan Si: School of Oil & Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
Qian Li: School of Oil & Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
Jinke Zhang: School of Oil & Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
Liming Dai: Industrial Systems Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S0A2, Canada

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-21

Abstract: Timely forecasting of the kick risk after a well kick can reduce the waiting time after well shut-in and provide more time for well killing operations. At present, the multiphase flow model is used to simulate and forecast the pit gain and casing pressure. Due to the complexity of downhole conditions, calculation of the multiphase flow model is difficult. In this paper, the time series analysis method is used to excavate the information contained in the time-varying data of pit gain and casing pressure. A forecasting model based on a time series analysis method of pit gain and casing pressure is established to forecast the pit gain and casing pressure after a kick. To divide the kick risk level and achieve the forecasting of the kick risk before and after well shut-in, kick risk analysis plates based on pit gain and casing pressure are established. Three pit gain cases and one casing pressure case are studied, and a comparison between measured data and predicted data shows that the proposed method has high prediction accuracy and repeatability.

Keywords: gas kick; forecasting; evaluating; time series analysis; risk level (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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