The Influence of the Wind Measurement Campaign Duration on a Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP)-Based Wind Resource Assessment

José V. P. Miguel, Eliane A. Fadigas and Ildo L. Sauer
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José V. P. Miguel: Institute of Energy and Environment, University of São Paulo, Avenida Professor Luciano Gualberto, 1289, São Paulo CEP 05508-010, Brazil
Eliane A. Fadigas: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of São Paulo, Avenida Professor Luciano Gualberto, Travessa 3, n. 158, São Paulo CEP 05508-970, Brazil
Ildo L. Sauer: Institute of Energy and Environment, University of São Paulo, Avenida Professor Luciano Gualberto, 1289, São Paulo CEP 05508-010, Brazil

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 19, 1-15

Abstract: Driven by the energy auctions system, wind power in Brazil is undergoing a phase of expansion within its electric energy mix. Due to wind’s stochastic nature and variability, the wind measurement campaign duration of a wind farm project is required to last for a minimum of 36 months in order for it to partake in energy auctions. In this respect, the influence of such duration on a measure-correlate-predict (MCP) based wind resource assessment was studied to assess the accuracy of generation forecasts. For this purpose, three databases containing time series of wind speed belonging to a site were considered. Campaigns with durations varying from 2 to 6 years were simulated to evaluate the behavior of the uncertainty in the long-term wind resource and to analyze how it impacts a wind farm power output estimation. As the wind measurement campaign length is increased, the uncertainty in the long-term wind resource diminished, thereby reducing the overall uncertainty that pervades the wind power harnessing. Larger monitoring campaigns implied larger quantities of data, thus enabling a better assessment of wind speed variability within that target location. Consequently, the energy production estimation decreased, allowing an improvement in the accuracy of the energy generation prediction by not overestimating it, which could benefit the reliability of the Brazilian electric system.

Keywords: wind measurement campaign; wind resource assessment; MCP methods; long-term wind resource uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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