Research and Application of Hybrid Wind-Energy Forecasting Models Based on Cuckoo Search Optimization

Ru Hou, Yi Yang, Qingcong Yuan and Yanhua Chen
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Ru Hou: School of Mathematics & Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Yi Yang: School of Information Science and Engineering, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Qingcong Yuan: Department of Statistics, Miami University, 304 B Upham Hall, Oxford, OH 45056, USA
Yanhua Chen: School of Information Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 19, 1-17

Abstract: Wind energy is crucial renewable and sustainable resource, which plays a major role in the energy mix in many countries around the world. Accurately forecasting the wind energy is not only important but also challenging in order to schedule the wind power generation and to ensure the security of wind-power integration. In this paper, four kinds of hybrid models based on cyclic exponential adjustment, adaptive coefficient methods and the cuckoo search algorithm are proposed to forecast the wind speed on large-scale wind farms in China. To verify the developed hybrid models’ effectiveness, wind-speed data from four sites of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region located in northwest China are collected and analyzed. Multiple criteria are used to quantitatively evaluate the forecasting results. Simulation results indicate that (1) the proposed four hybrid models achieve desirable forecasting accuracy and outperform traditional back-propagating neural network, autoregressive integrated moving average as well as single adaptive coefficient methods, and (2) the parameters of hybrid models optimized by artificial intelligence contribute to higher forecasting accuracy compared with predetermined parameters.

Keywords: wind speed forecasting; data pre-analysis; parameter optimization; cuckoo search algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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