Expansion Planning Method of the Industrial Park Integrated Energy System Considering Regret Aversion

Haokai Xie, Pu Zhao, Xudong Ji, Qun Lin and Lianguang Liu
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Haokai Xie: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Pu Zhao: State Grid Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China
Xudong Ji: State Grid Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China
Qun Lin: State Grid Wenzhou Power Supply Company, Wenzhou 325000, China
Lianguang Liu: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 21, 1-20

Abstract: Industrial parks have various sources and conversion forms of energy. The many uncertainties in the planning of industrial park integrated energy systems (IPIES) pose a great risk of regret in planning schemes; thus, an expansion planning method for an IPIES, considering regret aversion, is proposed. Based on comprehensive regret value consisting of min–max regret aversion and the min average regret value, the method optimizes the comprehensive cost of the expansion planning scheme in IPIES under different natural gas price fluctuation scenarios, including costs of construction, operation and maintenance, and environmental protection. A multi-stage expansion planning scheme and typical daily operation plans under multiple natural gas price fluctuation scenarios of the IPIES in an economic and technological development zone in southeast China are used to demonstrate the validity of the method. The results show that, compared with a traditional planning method based on expectation, the proposed expansion planning method could reduce the maximum regret value by 14% on average, and greatly reduces the risk of decision-making regret by up to 18%. At the same time, the influence of natural gas price on expansion planning of the IPIES is discussed.

Keywords: industrial park integrated energy system; expansion planning; natural gas price uncertainty; regret aversion; min–max regret value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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