Assessment and Day-Ahead Forecasting of Hourly Solar Radiation in Medellín, Colombia

Julián Urrego-Ortiz, J. Alejandro Martínez, Paola A. Arias and Álvaro Jaramillo-Duque
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Julián Urrego-Ortiz: Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 No. 53-108, Medellín 050010, Colombia
J. Alejandro Martínez: Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 No. 53-108, Medellín 050010, Colombia
Paola A. Arias: Grupo de Ingeniería y Gestión Ambiental (GIGA), Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 No. 53-108, Medellín 050010, Colombia
Álvaro Jaramillo-Duque: Research Group in Efficient Energy Management (GIMEL), Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 67 No. 53–108, Medellín 050010, Colombia

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 22, 1-29

Abstract: The description and forecasting of hourly solar resource is fundamental for the operation of solar energy systems in the electric grid. In this work, we provide insights regarding the hourly variation of the global horizontal irradiance in Medellín, Colombia, a large urban area within the tropical Andes. We propose a model based on Markov chains for forecasting the hourly solar irradiance for one day ahead. The Markov model was compared against estimates produced by different configurations of the weather research forecasting model (WRF). Our assessment showed that for the period considered, the average availability of the solar resource was of 5 PSH (peak sun hours), corresponding to an average daily radiation of ~5 kWh/m 2 . This shows that Medellín, Colombia, has a substantial availability of the solar resource that can be a complementary source of energy during the dry season periods. In the case of the Markov model, the estimates exhibited typical root mean squared errors between ~80 W/m 2 and ~170 W/m 2 (~50%–~110%) under overcast conditions, and ~57 W/m 2 to ~171 W/m 2 (~16%–~38%) for clear sky conditions. In general, the proposed model had a performance comparable with the WRF model, while presenting a computationally inexpensive alternative to forecast hourly solar radiation one day in advance. The Markov model is presented as an alternative to estimate time series that can be used in energy markets by agents and power-system operators to deal with the uncertainty of solar power plants.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiance (GHI); forecasting; clearness coefficient; Markov chains; weather research and forecasting model; solar resource (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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