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The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis

Sajjad Ali (), Li Gucheng (), Liu Ying (), Muhammad Ishaq () and Tariq Shah ()
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Sajjad Ali: College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Li Gucheng: College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Liu Ying: College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Muhammad Ishaq: Agricultural Pricing and Trade Policy, Social Sciences Division, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Tariq Shah: Department of Economics & Development Studies, University of Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 19130, Pakistan

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 24, 1-23

Abstract: This study aims to explore the casual relationship between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to examine the relationship between agricultural production, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions using time series data from 1960 to 2014. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests are used to check the stationarity of variables. The results show both short-run and long-run relationships between agricultural production, gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. From the short-run estimates, it is found that a 1% increase in barley and sorghum production will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 3% and 4%, respectively. The pairwise Granger causality test shows unidirectional causality of cotton, milled rice, and sorghum production with carbon dioxide emissions. Due to the aforementioned cause, it is essential to manage the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on agricultural production. Appropriate steps are needed to develop agricultural adaptation policies, improve irrigation facilities and introduce high-yielding and disease-resistant varieties of crops to ensure food security in the country.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions; agricultural production; GDP; ARDL bounds test; Granger causality; Pakistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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