Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China

Zeng Li, Jingying Fu, Gang Lin, Dong Jiang, Kun Liu and Yaxin Wang
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Zeng Li: College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Jingying Fu: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Gang Lin: College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Dong Jiang: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Kun Liu: Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application Center, Ministry of Natural Resources Beijing 100048, China
Yaxin Wang: Resource Information Center, Chinese Academy of Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100080, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 4, 1-17

Abstract: In view of the complexity of the energy system and its complex relationship with socio-economic factors, this study adopts the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, a technology-based, bottom-up approach, scenario-based analysis, to develop a systematic analysis of the current and future energy consumption, supply and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. The impact of various energy policies on the energy system in Hebei Province was analysed by considering four scenarios: a Reference Scenario (REF), Industrial Structure Optimization Scenario (ISO), Terminal Consumption Structure Optimization Scenario (TOS) and Low-carbon Development Scenario (LCD). By designing strategic policies from the perspective of industrial adjustment, aggressive energy structure policies and measures, such as the ISO and the TOS, and even more aggressive options, such as the LCD, where the percentage of cleaner alternative energy sources has been further increased, it has been indicated that energy consumption will have increased from 321.618 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the REF, with a corresponding increase in GHG emissions from 920.56 million metric tonnes (Mt) to 2262.81 Mt. In contrast, the more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the LCD, which combines the ISO with the policy-oriented TOS, can lower energy consumption by 50.82% and CO 2 emissions by 64.26%. The results shed light on whether and how these scenarios can shape the energy-carbon emission reduction trajectories and develop the low-carbon pathways in Hebei Province.

Keywords: energy consumption; carbon emission; Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP); scenario analysis; bottom-up approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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