Short-Term Electric Load and Price Forecasting Using Enhanced Extreme Learning Machine Optimization in Smart Grids

Aqdas Naz, Muhammad Umar Javed, Nadeem Javaid, Tanzila Saba, Musaed Alhussein and Khursheed Aurangzeb
Additional contact information
Aqdas Naz: Department of Computer Science, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Muhammad Umar Javed: Department of Computer Science, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Nadeem Javaid: Department of Computer Science, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Tanzila Saba: College of Computer and Information Systems, Al Yamamah University, Riyadh 11512, Saudi Arabia
Musaed Alhussein: Computer Engineering Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11543, Saudi Arabia
Khursheed Aurangzeb: Computer Engineering Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11543, Saudi Arabia

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 5, 1-30

Abstract: A Smart Grid (SG) is a modernized grid to provide efficient, reliable and economic energy to the consumers. Energy is the most important resource in the world. An efficient energy distribution is required as smart devices are increasing dramatically. The forecasting of electricity consumption is supposed to be a major constituent to enhance the performance of SG. Various learning algorithms have been proposed to solve the forecasting problem. The sole purpose of this work is to predict the price and load efficiently. The first technique is Enhanced Logistic Regression (ELR) and the second technique is Enhanced Recurrent Extreme Learning Machine (ERELM). ELR is an enhanced form of Logistic Regression (LR), whereas, ERELM optimizes weights and biases using a Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Relief-F and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) are used for feature selection and extraction. On the basis of selected features, classification is performed using ELR. Cross validation is done for ERELM using Monte Carlo and K -Fold methods. The simulations are performed on two different datasets. The first dataset, i.e., UMass Electric Dataset is multi-variate while the second dataset, i.e., UCI Dataset is uni-variate. The first proposed model performed better with UMass Electric Dataset than UCI Dataset and the accuracy of second model is better with UCI than UMass. The prediction accuracy is analyzed on the basis of four different performance metrics: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The proposed techniques are then compared with four benchmark schemes. The comparison is done to verify the adaptivity of the proposed techniques. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques outperformed benchmark schemes. The proposed techniques efficiently increased the prediction accuracy of load and price. However, the computational time is increased in both scenarios. ELR achieved almost 5% better results than Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and almost 3% than LR. While, ERELM achieved almost 6% better results than ELM and almost 5% than RELM. However, the computational time is almost 20% increased with ELR and 50% with ERELM. Scalability is also addressed for the proposed techniques using half-yearly and yearly datasets. Simulation results show that ELR gives 5% better results while, ERELM gives 6% better results when used for yearly dataset.

Keywords: smart grid; forecasting; load; price; CNN; LR; ELR; RELM; ERELM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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