Classification of Special Days in Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Spanish Case Study

Miguel López, Carlos Sans, Sergio Valero and Carolina Senabre
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Miguel López: Electrical Engineering Area, University Miguel Hernández, Av. de la Universidad, s/n, 03202 Elche, Spain
Carlos Sans: Electrical Engineering Area, University Miguel Hernández, Av. de la Universidad, s/n, 03202 Elche, Spain
Sergio Valero: Electrical Engineering Area, University Miguel Hernández, Av. de la Universidad, s/n, 03202 Elche, Spain
Carolina Senabre: Electrical Engineering Area, University Miguel Hernández, Av. de la Universidad, s/n, 03202 Elche, Spain

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-31

Abstract: Short-Term Load Forecasting is a very relevant aspect in managing, operating or participating an electric system. From system operators to energy producers and retailers knowing the electric demand in advance with high accuracy is a key feature for their business. The load series of a given system presents highly repetitive daily, weekly and yearly patterns. However, other factors like temperature or social events cause abnormalities in this otherwise periodic behavior. In order to develop an effective load forecasting system, it is necessary to understand and model these abnormalities because, in many cases, the higher forecasting error typical of these special days is linked to the larger part of the losses related to load forecasting. This paper focuses on the effect that several types of special days have on the load curve and how important it is to model these behaviors in detail. The paper analyzes the Spanish national system and it uses linear regression to model the effect that social events like holidays or festive periods have on the load curve. The results presented in this paper show that a large classification of events is needed in order to accurately model all the events that may occur in a 7-year period.

Keywords: load forecasting; special days; regressive models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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