Short-Term Forecasts of DNI from an Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF) for Optimized Operational Strategies of a Central Receiver System

Francis M. Lopes, Ricardo Conceição, Hugo G. Silva, Thomas Fasquelle, Rui Salgado, Paulo Canhoto and Manuel Collares-Pereira
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Francis M. Lopes: Renewable Energy Chair, University of Évora, IIFA, Palácio do Vimioso, Largo Marquês de Marialva, Apart. 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal
Ricardo Conceição: Renewable Energy Chair, University of Évora, IIFA, Palácio do Vimioso, Largo Marquês de Marialva, Apart. 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal
Hugo G. Silva: Renewable Energy Chair, University of Évora, IIFA, Palácio do Vimioso, Largo Marquês de Marialva, Apart. 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal
Thomas Fasquelle: Renewable Energy Chair, University of Évora, IIFA, Palácio do Vimioso, Largo Marquês de Marialva, Apart. 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal
Rui Salgado: Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal
Paulo Canhoto: Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal
Manuel Collares-Pereira: Renewable Energy Chair, University of Évora, IIFA, Palácio do Vimioso, Largo Marquês de Marialva, Apart. 94, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-18

Abstract: Short-term forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the global numerical weather prediction model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used in the simulation of a solar power tower, through the System Advisor Model (SAM). Recent results demonstrated that DNI forecasts have been enhanced, having the potential to be a suitable tool for plant operators that allows achieving higher energy efficiency in the management of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, particularly during periods of direct solar radiation intermittency. The main objective of this work was to assert the predictive value of the IFS forecasts, regarding operation outputs from a simulated central receiver system. Considering a 365-day period, the present results showed an hourly correlation of ≈0.78 between the electric energy injected into the grid based on forecasted and measured data, while a higher correlation was found for the daily values (≈0.89). Operational strategies based on the forecasted results were proposed for plant operators regarding the three different weather scenarios. Although there were still deviations due to the cloud and aerosol representation, the IFS forecasts showed a high potential to be used for supporting informed energy dispatch decisions in the operation of central receiver units.

Keywords: short-term forecasts; direct normal irradiance; concentrating solar power; system advisor model; operational strategies; central solar receiver (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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