Solar Irradiance Forecasts by Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models with Different Horizontal Resolutions

Hideaki Ohtake, Fumichika Uno, Takashi Oozeki, Syugo Hayashi, Junshi Ito, Akihiro Hashimoto, Hiromasa Yoshimura and Yoshinori Yamada
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Hideaki Ohtake: Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
Fumichika Uno: Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
Takashi Oozeki: Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Ibaraki 3058568, Japan
Syugo Hayashi: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
Junshi Ito: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
Akihiro Hashimoto: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
Hiromasa Yoshimura: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan
Yoshinori Yamada: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-17

Abstract: This study examines the performance of radiation processes (shortwave and longwave radiations) using numerical weather prediction models (NWPs). NWP were calculated using four different horizontal resolutions (5, 2 and 1 km, and 500 m). Validation results on solar irradiance simulations with a horizontal resolution of 500 m indicated positive biases for direct normal irradiance dominate for the period from 09 JST (Japan Standard Time) to 15 JST. On the other hand, after 15 JST, negative biases were found. For diffused irradiance, weak negative biases were found. Validation results on upward longwave radiation found systematic negative biases of surface temperature (corresponding to approximately −2 K for summer and approximately −1 K for winter). Downward longwave radiation tended to be weak negative biases during both summer and winter. Frequency of solar irradiance suggested that the frequency of rapid variations of solar irradiance (ramp rates) from the NWP were less than those observed. Generally, GHI distributions between the four different horizontal resolutions resembled each other, although horizontal resolutions also became finer.

Keywords: solar irradiance forecasts; numerical weather prediction model; different horizontal resolution; forecast errors; validation; ramp rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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