Damage Probability Assessment of Transmission Line-Tower System Under Typhoon Disaster, Based on Model-Driven and Data-Driven Views

Hui Hou, Hao Geng, Yong Huang, Hao Wu, Xixiu Wu and Shiwen Yu
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Hui Hou: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Hao Geng: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Yong Huang: Electric Power Research Institute, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, China
Hao Wu: Electric Power Research Institute, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510080, China
Xixiu Wu: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
Shiwen Yu: School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-17

Abstract: Under the typhoon disaster, the power grid often has serious accidents caused by falling power towers and breaking lines. It is of great significance to analyze and predict the damage probability of a transmission line-tower system for disaster prevention and reduction. However, some problems existing in current models, such as complicated calculation, few factors, and so on, affect the accuracy of the prediction. Therefore, a damage probability assessment method of a transmission line-tower system under a typhoon disaster is proposed. Firstly, considering the actual wind load and the design wind load, physical models for calculating the damage probability of the transmission line and power tower are established, respectively based on model-driven thought. Then, the damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is obtained, combining the transmission line and power tower damage probability. Secondly, in order to improve prediction accuracy, this paper analyzes the historical sample data containing multiple influencing factors, such as geographic information, meteorological information, and power grid information, and then obtains the correction coefficient based on data-driven thought. Thirdly, the comprehensive damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is calculated considering the results of model-driven and data-driven thought. Ultimately, the proposed method is verified to be effective, taking typhoon ‘Mangkhut’ in 2018 as a case study.

Keywords: typhoon; damage probability; prediction model; correction coefficient; transmission line-tower system; data analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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