Combining Weather Stations for Electric Load Forecasting

Masoud Sobhani, Allison Campbell, Saurabh Sangamwar, Changlin Li and Tao Hong
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Masoud Sobhani: Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 28223 Charlotte, NC, USA
Allison Campbell: Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 28223 Charlotte, NC, USA
Saurabh Sangamwar: Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 28223 Charlotte, NC, USA
Changlin Li: Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 28223 Charlotte, NC, USA
Tao Hong: Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 28223 Charlotte, NC, USA

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-11

Abstract: Weather is a key factor affecting electricity demand. Many load forecasting models rely on weather variables. Weather stations provide point measurements of weather conditions in a service area. Since the load is spread geographically, a single weather station may not sufficiently explain the variations of the load over a vast area. Therefore, a proper combination of multiple weather stations plays a vital role in load forecasting. This paper answers the question: given a number of weather stations, how should they be combined for load forecasting? Simple averaging has been a commonly used and effective method in the literature. In this paper, we compared the performance of seven alternative methods with simple averaging as the benchmark using the data of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. The results demonstrate that some of the methods outperform the benchmark in combining weather stations. In addition, averaging the forecasts from these methods outperforms most individual methods.

Keywords: weather station combination; electric load forecasting; hierarchical load forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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